Vojvodić, Ena (2023) Risk perception and the earthquakes in Groningen: disentangling the predictors. Research Master thesis, Research Master.
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Abstract
Psychological science has extensively studied biases of human cognition. The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) was created to explain various societal processes driving risk perception. However, the interplay of real-life exposure and social factors over time has been studied much less. This paper looks into the temporal development of risk perception in a real-life setting of exposure to earthquakes caused by gas extraction. We analysed four data subsets (N1 = 750, N2 = 639, N3 = 908, N4 = 2046) from a representative panel of Groningen residents, exposed to varying degrees of seismicity, across fourteen timepoints between February 2016 and June 2019. A structural equation model was iteratively built to observe how much variance in risk perception of earthquakes can be explained by objective exposure to ground motion, personal exposure to damage, and perceived social factors. Substantial variability in risk perception was explained by both objective exposure (between R22 = 39.2% and R42 = 44.6%) and by social factors of involvement and outrage (between R42 = 6% and R12 = 18%). However, objective exposure proved to be a much more potent predictor of inter-personal differences in the perception of risk, than the social factors are. Keywords: risk perception, SARF framework, earthquakes, structural equation modelling
| Item Type: | Thesis (Research Master) |
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| Supervisor name: | Postmes, T.T. |
| Degree programme: | Research Master |
| Differentiation route: | Sustainability in a Changing Society [Research Master] |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Aug 2023 06:51 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Aug 2023 06:51 |
| URI: | http://gmwpublic.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/2770 |
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