Tan, Guang Hao (2024) Shall I Stay or Shall I Go? The Functional Account of Counterfactuals in Predicting Electoral Switching. Bachelor thesis, Psychology.
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Abstract
The use of outgroup-focused rhetoric in political messaging in the aftermath of a perceived failure abounds, even when the reasoning behind those arguments are easily falsified by impartial observers. We apply the functional theory of counterfactual alternatives to investigate the effectiveness of outgroup-focused vs. ingroup-focused messages that elicit the possibility of better outcomes, if only the relevant party had acted in a better way in the past. We tested the following hypotheses: (H1) Endorsement of outgroup-focused counterfactuals is negatively related with political regret. (H2) Endorsement of outgroup-focused counterfactuals is negatively related with electoral switching. (H3) Political regret functions as a mediator in the relationship between outgroup-focused counterfactuals and intentions of electoral switching. Participants (N = 364) were randomly allocated to an outgroup- or ingroup-focused counterfactual condition, and asked to rate their endorsement of the counterfactual alternatives. We found evidence that endorsement of ingroup-focused counterfactual alternatives predict future electoral switching intentions, but no evidence of relation to regret. The study adds to our understanding of how the framing of counterfactual alternatives can play a predictive role in future electoral intentions, as well as the practical considerations that follow. Keywords: counterfactuals, regret, electoral switching, voting behaviour
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Epstude, K. |
| Degree programme: | Psychology |
| Differentiation route: | None [Bachelor Psychology] |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Feb 2024 09:46 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Feb 2024 09:46 |
| URI: | http://gmwpublic.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/3116 |
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