Voerman, Stijn (2025) Predicting Sports Injuries in Youth Soccer Players Using Psychological States: A Recurrence Quantification Approach. Master thesis, Psychology.
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Abstract
Injury prediction has long been a focus within sports psychology, yet prediction accuracy remains limited. One reason for this may be that injuries result from complex, dynamic processes that require analytical approaches capable of capturing these dynamics. The aim of the present study was to determine whether changes in the temporal dynamics of psychological states can serve as early warning signals for injury occurrence of youth soccer players. Daily self-reports of self-efficacy, mood, enjoyment, motivation, and perceived performance were collected from 16 players across two competitive seasons, during which injury occurrence was also systematically tracked. Recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) was used to analyze these psychological time series. Key RQA metrics, recurrence rate (RR) and determinism (DET), were calculated to quantify the predictability and recurrence of psychological states over time. Recurrence Plots (RPs) were used to visualize the recurrences of the dynamical patterns. Results showed that injuries were frequently preceded by visible changes in RQA metrics during the six measurement points preceding injury. Most often, RR and DET increased preceding injury. However, decreases were observed in some cases. The timing and nature of these changes varied across individuals, and no consistent group-level trend was found. These findings underscore the need for individualized, dynamic monitoring of psychological states when assessing injury risk. Methodological limitations, including missing data and the exclusion of repeated injuries, should be taken into account. Future research should focus on developing objective frameworks for interpreting RQA metrics in psychological time series and validating these methods in larger and more diverse samples.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Neumann, N.D. |
| Degree programme: | Psychology |
| Differentiation route: | Talent Development and Creativity (TDC) [Master Psychology] |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Jul 2025 09:20 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Jul 2025 09:20 |
| URI: | http://gmwpublic.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/5541 |
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