Haslacher, Miora (2025) Looking at Affective Forecasting Through the Window of Emotion Regulation. Bachelor thesis, Psychology.
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Abstract
Recent research has shown that humans often struggle to accurately predict their future emotions. While cognitive biases such as the impact and projection bias are well-documented in affective forecasting, less attention has been given to how individual differences in emotion regulation may influence these forecasts. Emerging literature suggests that emotion regulation, particularly the ability to modulate emotional intensity and duration—may be crucial in reducing forecasting errors. This study investigates the relationship between emotion regulation, operationalized through affect inertia and mean affect levels, and affective forecasting accuracy, aiming to explain what may make some individuals better than others at predicting their own emotions. Using the experience sampling method (ESM), 30 participants reported their positive and negative affect levels five times a day over a 14-day time period. We tested the main and interaction effects of mean affect levels and affect inertia separately for positive (PA) and negative (NA) affect, on forecasting error. Results showed that higher mean NA significantly predicted greater NA forecasting errors, while mean PA was not a significant predictor of PA forecasting errors. Neither inertia nor the interaction between inertia and mean significantly predicted forecasting accuracy for either PA or NA. These results highlight the importance of individuals' average emotional state when considering the accuracy of their affective forecast. Future research should explore how stable personality traits such as neuroticism compare to emotion regulation in shaping forecasting error, as these traits may play a critical role in driving cognitive biases that distort forecasts.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Petersen, F.J. |
| Degree programme: | Psychology |
| Differentiation route: | None [Bachelor Psychology] |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Jul 2025 09:03 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Jul 2025 09:03 |
| URI: | http://gmwpublic.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/5717 |
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