Nebel, Henrike (2025) How Does Uncertainty About One’s Affective Forecasting Correspond to Prediction Accuracy? Bachelor thesis, Psychology.
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Abstract
Human affective forecasting - the ability to predict future emotions - has been consistently shown to be flawed. These prediction errors have detrimental consequences for our behavior, affecting one's health and well-being. Past research explaining this phenomenon emphasized the impact bias: the tendency to overestimate intensity and durability of future emotions. A related concept in the human judgment domain is overconfidence: a general tendency to overestimate one's judgement. Given the similarity of both concepts, we hypothesized similar results for our affective forecasting domain: a tendency of individuals to display overconfidence in their predictions. On an individual level, geopolitical forecasting shows that individuals displaying more certainty were more correct in their predictions than uncertain individuals. We hypothesize this trend to transfer to our study: higher certainty is associated with an increase in prediction accuracy. We used the experience sampling method (ESM) - a longitudinal research design implemented in participants daily life. This study newly introduced the interval measurement to assess uncertainty and quantify overconfidence. Throughout a period of 14 days, participants indicated a point and interval prediction five times a day. Results support our hypotheses, indicating general overconfidence in prediction: instead of expected 95%, participants' prediction intervals contained the true value in 64.1% of all cases. Furthermore higher certainty was associated with higher prediction accuracy. Our results introduce overconfidence as a new predictor for affective forecasting accuracy with possible implications for intervention aiming to reduce prediction errors. Keywords: Affective Forecasting, Overconfidence, Overestimation, Certainty, Prediction, Impact Bias
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
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| Supervisor name: | Petersen, F.J. |
| Degree programme: | Psychology |
| Differentiation route: | None [Bachelor Psychology] |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2025 08:52 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Jul 2025 08:52 |
| URI: | http://gmwpublic.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/5752 |
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