Prinsen, Raoul (2025) Predicting Factors of Future Performance in Football Players. Master thesis, Psychology.
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Abstract
Football clubs have competitive and financial reasons to try and predict if a player will be talented in the future. The literature increasingly researches identifiers of performance in football, but no strong and consistent predictors have been found yet. So, football clubs often rely on scouts and coaches to identify talent. This leaves room for bias and inconsistency. The aim of this study was to make prediction models for future performance based on the cognitive, psychological, and physical tests conducted by the Royal Dutch Football Association (KNVB) on 359 football players (Mean age = 19.9, SD = .29) that were part of a professional football club. Future performance was measured with Professional Level, meaning a player has made their first-team debut and played in a first-team the following seasons, and ELO-rating, calculating the individual rating of a player based on the result of the game and the skill level of the opponent. The models were made for intervals between tests and outcome of one, two, and three years. The results showed no individual tests were consistent over time or between outcome variables for predicting future performance. This was likely due to the range restriction of the sample and the lack of validity of some tests. The models made predictions moderately better, but most models contained different tests, making the models difficult to use in practice.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master) |
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| Supervisor name: | Niessen, A.S.M. |
| Degree programme: | Psychology |
| Differentiation route: | Talent Development and Creativity (TDC) [Master Psychology] |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Oct 2025 10:30 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Oct 2025 10:30 |
| URI: | http://gmwpublic.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/5972 |
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