Regression Direction and Conditional Effects in Social Psychological Data

Giese, Alina (2026) Regression Direction and Conditional Effects in Social Psychological Data. Bachelor thesis, Psychology.

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Abstract

Linear regression is frequently used in psychological research (Beller & Baier, 2013). However, its application demands particular care in a field where most psychological constructs are imperfectly measured (Matzke et al., 2017). This is because linear regression relies on the assumption that predictors are measured without error (Hodges & Moore, 1972) and, under ordinary least squares, only minimizes squared deviations in the outcome variable. Consequently, swapping the predictor and outcome variables changes the quantity of interest and can alter the results of the regression. This thesis reanalyzes empirical studies to examine the conditional effects of regression direction in the presence of likely measurement error. Based on theoretical justification of predictor and outcome selection, data accessibility, and suitability for reanalysis, 87 articles from Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin were reviewed. Six original regressions were replicated and inverted by swapping the roles of predictor and outcome variables. For each direction, four quantities were extracted: standardized and unstandardized coefficients, explained variance, and the standard error of the unstandardized coefficient. Change rates were computed by dividing the replicated estimate by the inverted estimate. Across eight inversions, the mean change rate exceeded one for all four quantities. These results demonstrate that swapping variables can notably alter regression outputs. Therefore, selecting predictor and outcome roles is not a neutral analytical step. Hence, regression direction should be grounded in theory and reported clearly to ensure interpretable and consistent findings.

Item Type:	Thesis (Bachelor)
Supervisor name:	Rimpler, A.
Degree programme:	Psychology
Differentiation route:	None [Bachelor Psychology]
Date Deposited:	10 Feb 2026 15:29
Last Modified:	10 Feb 2026 15:29
URI:	http://gmwpublic.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/6159

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